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By PAUL KRUGMAN
The real division in the race
for the Democratic nomination
is between those who are willing
to question the people running
our country, and those who aren't.
Earlier this week, Wesley Clark
had some strong words about
the state of the nation. "I
think we're at risk with our
democracy," he said. "I
think we're dealing with the
most closed, imperialistic,
nastiest administration in living
memory. They even put Richard
Nixon to shame."
In other words, the general
gets it: he understands that
America is facing what Kevin
Phillips, in his remarkable
new book, "American Dynasty,"
calls a "Machiavellian
moment." Among other things,
this tells us that General Clark
and Howard Dean, whatever they
may say in the heat of the nomination
fight, are on the same side
of the great Democratic divide.
Most political reporting on
the Democratic race, it seems
to me, has gotten it wrong.
Some journalists do, of course,
insist on trivializing the whole
thing: what I dread most, in
the event of an upset in Iowa,
is the return of reporting about
the political significance of
John Kerry's hair.
But even those who refrain
from turning political reporting
into gossip have used the wrong
categories. Again and again,
one reads that it's about the
left wing of the Democratic
party versus the centrists;
but Mr. Dean was a very centrist
governor, and his policy proposals
are not obviously more liberal
than those of his rivals.
The real division in the race
for the Democratic nomination
is between those who are willing
to question not just the policies
but also the honesty and the
motives of the people running
our country, and those who aren't.
What makes Mr. Dean seem radical
aren't his policy positions
but his willingness shared,
we now know, by General Clark
to take a hard line against
the Bush administration. This
horrifies some veterans of the
Clinton years, who have nostalgic
memories of elections that were
won by emphasizing the positive.
Indeed, George Bush's handlers
have already made it clear that
they intend to make his "optimism"
as opposed to the negativism
of his angry opponents
a campaign theme. (Money-saving
suggestion: let's cut directly
to the scene where Mr. Bush
dresses up as an astronaut,
and skip the rest of his expensive,
pointless but optimistic!
Moon-base program.)
But even Bill Clinton couldn't
run a successful Clinton-style
campaign this year, for several
reasons.
One is that the Democratic
candidate, no matter how business-friendly,
will not be able to get lots
of corporate contributions,
as Clinton did. In the Clinton
era, a Democrat could still
raise a lot of money from business,
partly because there really
are liberal businessmen, partly
because donors wanted to hedge
their bets. But these days the
Republicans control all three
branches of government and exercise
that control ruthlessly. Even
corporate types who have grave
misgivings about the Bush administration
a much larger group than
you might think are afraid
to give money to Democrats.
Another is that the Bush people
really are Nixonian. The bogus
security investigation over
Ron Suskind's "The Price
of Loyalty," like the outing
of Valerie Plame, shows the
lengths they're willing to go
to in intimidating their critics.
(In the case of Paul O'Neill,
alas, the intimidation seems
to be working.) A mild-mannered,
upbeat candidate would get eaten
alive.
Finally, any Democrat has
to expect not just severely
slanted coverage from the fair
and balanced Republican media,
but asymmetric treatment even
from the mainstream media. For
example, some have said that
the intense scrutiny of Mr.
Dean's Vermont record is what
every governor who runs for
president faces. No, it isn't.
I've looked at press coverage
of questions surrounding Mr.
Bush's tenure in Austin, like
the investment of state university
funds with Republican donors;
he got a free pass during the
2000 campaign.
So what's the answer? A Democratic
candidate will have a chance
of winning only if he has an
energized base, willing to contribute
money in many small donations,
willing to contribute their
own time, willing to stand up
for the candidate in the face
of smear tactics and unfair
coverage.
That doesn't mean that the
Democratic candidate has to
be a radical which is
a good thing for the party,
since all of the candidates
are actually quite moderate.
In fact, what the party needs
is a candidate who inspires
the base enough to get out the
message that he isn't a radical
and that Mr. Bush is.
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